ECLIPS

GENERAL DESCRIPTION The project proposed here aims at improving the dynamical understanding of the sub-polar gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. The primary research tools are numerical modelling and state-of-the-art statistical and physical analyses. Advance in this field is important because the sub-polar gyre is a key region for decadal climate variability and therefore related to many changes that impact human societies and economies in this region. Demand for improved decadal predictions has increased in recent years. Many research institutions are currently designing elaborate numerical prediction systems for climate services. However, the performance of climate models with respect to the sub-polar gyre has not been investigated yet. Previous work suggests large differences in the simulated dynamics and variability, limiting the prediction skill. We propose the first time inter-comparison of this circulation system in comprehensive climate models. Moreover, we will perform specifically designed experiments with coupled and uncoupled climate models to investigate how decadal climate variability is generated by atmosphere-ocean exchanges, and to quantify the importance of different physical fluxes and different regions. In order to make our results available and facilitate their application, they will be conceptualized in a mathematical model, a minimal prediction system. This mechanistic understanding complements large numerical prediction efforts at partner institutions. The project is motivated by a novel understanding of historic climate changes that the applicant developed during his doctoral studies. We will take this idea as a promising starting point, scrutinize the underlying dynamics and develop this approach into a useful model of climate variability. The applicant will receive complementary training in the necessary skills. He will also improve his educational and outreach skills for which the host is exceptionally well prepared. RRI FOCUS Ranking of the most relevant RRI dimensions, where 6 is the most relevant to the project •Science education PROJECT OUTCOMES RELATED TO RRI Which are the most relevant project outcomes (roadmaps, guidelines, documents, reports, articles, videos etc) in terms of RRI? LESSONS LEARNED POLICY RELATED LESSONS LEARNED Main policy briefs produced by the project and related URL Policy brief 1 Policy brief 2 Policy brief 3 Policy brief 4 Policy brief 5

ECLIPS Duration 2012-2014 Project coordinator altiokh@istanbul.edu.tr Fundings framework FP7 Website http://cordis.europa.eu/docs/results/300/300544/final1-summary.pdf Marine Region Focus North-East Atlantic Sea Marine Related Issues Marine change caused by climate Sectors Education and Research Themes Climate change Stakeholders Involved •Scientists and Research Organization